Sunday, November 17, 2013




Blue Orbs, Comet ISON and the dangers of Doomsday Predictions





(For Joe Mausser aka Joe Bigsky)


This is my very first post on this blog and I thought this would be a good oportunity to interview my friend bugbait42 (youtube username and the name he's using at cosmophobia.org). He's very open minded and a voice of reason. He's a hobby astronomer who is quite well informed about planets and space. He's also overall quite knowledgeable about many other topics and a very cool guy.


Stellar Thoughts (ST)
How did you get interested in astronomy and the field of ufology?

bugbait42 (bb42)
I got interested in astronomy back in the 1960s when I read books by Sir Patrick Moore. He explains it very well in his books and I find them very readable. He gives a good guide to the other planets and moons in our solar system and explains that our sun and its planets are part of a gigantic galaxy of stars, which in turn is part of a universe consisting of billions of other galaxies. I found this fascinating!

Ufology didn't really get me interested until about 1991, when I had a sighting of something I couldn't explain from about 20 feet away in my back garden, although I was aware before that there were many sighting reports.

ST
And you've continued your studies after reading Moore's books?

bb42
Yes, it has never failed to interest me ever since and I try to keep up with all the latest discoveries to this day.

ST
Are there any astronomical phenomena which always fascinated you most?

bb42
Hard to say really as it is all fascinating to me. Possibly our own moon to begin with, since it is close and clearly visible to the naked eye. I took a great interest in the Apollo missons and watched all the landings and moonwalks etc live on tv whenever they were broadcast if I had a tv available at the time.

ST
OK, let's get to your sighting. What exactly happened?

bb42
I was playing soccer with my then seven year old son in our back garden. I happened to glance across to my neighbours' garden and saw a silvery-blue ball shaped object, approximately 20 ft away and 10 ft up, hovering above their garden. I would say it was about the same size as the soccer ball we were playing with or maybe a little bigger.

This object moved to my right towards the house, gradually gaining speed, then suddenly shot straight up in the air at tremendous speed and disappeared completely from view . I estimate that from the moment I first saw it, to the moment it disappeared from view was about 3 seconds and its speed when it shot up in the air must have been in the region of several hundred mph.

I shouted to my son about it to look up but he didn't see it as by then it had gone. I've never seen anything like it before or since and it took me completely by surprise. It spooked me out quite a bit at the time as well.

ST
Now that was quite a close encounter. Did that sighting have any kind of effect on how you see things-- the world etc.? And did you try to find out what it could have been?

bb42
Only the realization that there are unidentified objects flying that have not been explained, and that whilst the vast majority of UFO sightings are either hoaxes or have mundane explanations, a tiny percentage of those sightings do remain unexplained. I did try to find out what it could have been, by reading reports of similar sightings at UFO Casebook and so on. But the bottom line is that anyone who puts forward a theory is only speculating and cannot produce any actual evidence - the result being that these sightings remain unexplained.

ST
For a couple of years now your interest has somewhat shifted to another topic regarding all the craze going on about Planet X, Comet ISON and similar Armageddon-scenarios. What can you tell us about that?

bb42
I first heard about these claims about ten years ago, when they were mentioned on a forum I sometimes go on, called "Armageddon Online." I knew they were all nonsense straight away though, because of my many years of studying astronomy. Then, when Youtube got started, I found that many people were parroting the claims with scaremongering videos.

I first became really concerned about the effect the claims were having, when I found a website started by Bill Hudson called "2012hoax.org" (ST: now cosmophobia.org) in which many scared people, including kids were posting in the forum, some of whom were suicidal. The claims that the world would end in 2012 because of the end of the Mayan Calendar were largely responsible for this, but also because hoaxers and doomsday proponents were throwing "Nibiru" and "Planet X" into the mix as well, often tying their claims in with the 21st Dec 2012 "doomsday."

I then decided to do what I could to help debunk the claims and to allay people's fears and I, along with many others, having been helping Bill Hudson ever since.

ST
Were there any people who committed suicide out of fear of all those doomsday predictions?

bb42
There have been two suicides that we definitely know of, that were both reported in the media. Isabel Taylor, who hung herself because of fears about "2012 doomsday" (and reports also said she had been surfing doomsday sites the day before she died) and a girl in India who drank insecticide over doomsday claims about the Large Hadron Collider.

However, quite a number of people in the 2012hoax and Cosmophobia forum and in Youtube comments and on Facebook etc have said they are feeling very scared and suicidal. A couple of guys who help with the comments also said they know of others who have killed themselves, ie sons or daughters of friends.

I personally came across one guy commenting on a Nibiru video last year, who said he was worried and suicidal, so Bikenbeer2000 and myself explained to him why it's all nonsense and pointed him in the direction of the 2012hoax site, where he then joined as a member and began posting in the forum. Then, a couple of weeks later, he said his fears had gone and started posting debunking comments in the forum and on videos himself!

ST
This is horrible and it shows that sometimes it's very important to debunk stuff like that. But it's good to know that there are people like you who help people out of that misery.

bb42
Yes it's awful and although the number of people helping out with the debunking does seem to be growing, we still need more people to help.

ST
You try to educate people about all these claims. How do you do that?

bb42
It depends on the claim and it's not always easy in a Youtube comment, where you only have 500 characters (although you can continue in a second or third comment, but it's messy and not always easy to follow, the way Youtube is currently set up.) You can't post direct links in a Youtube comment either, so what I usually do is post the exact title of a science article and the name of the author or website and tell people to Google it, when it will usually be the first result on the list.

With Nibiru claims it's pretty easy to explain though - no astronomer has ever seen it, it's failed to arrive on umpteen different predicted dates ever since 2003 and most importantly, it would be defying the laws of physics, because the orbits of the planets in the Solar System, including Earth have not been perturbed and thrown into chaos by Nibiru's gravitational pull.

ST
So you comment on videos at Youtube?

bb42
Yes, Youtube is where I mainly tackle the doom proponents, because there are just SO MANY scaremongering videos on there, with new ones appearing every day. There's quite a number of us posting these comments, but nothing like enough as we are heavily outnumbered by the doom proponents and could do with having many more helping. I first started posting comments a couple of years ago, when the Comet Elenin nonsense was going on.

ST
Who are the others also posting clarifying comments?

bb42
There are quite a number of us. Dazzathecameraman, Bill Hudson, Bikenbeer2000, ThreeFangCat, TruthResearcher, drkstrong, barriemicks74, TheTruthinAstronomy, Chew1964, Astronomy Live, d5uncr, afvpegknight, Yeticus Rex (ST: Those are youtube usernames).

Some of those people also upload videos of their own to debunk the claims. Dazzathecameraman for example - he is quite prolific and often uploads a video that's dedicated to answering claims on a specific video uploaded by a doom proponent. Following a Skype video interview, Dazza even managed to demonstrate to Alfred Webre that Marshall Masters' claims about a brown dwarf star in our solar system are wrong.

ST
And they are all hobby astronomers?

bb42
Yes, many of them are amateur astronomers, or people interested in other sciences and in some cases they are professional astronomers or have jobs working in other sciences. drkstrong for example, is a solar physicist who has done quite a lot of work for NASA.

ST
Thinking about those suicides you've mentioned, do you feel doomsday proponents should be prosecuted because they are at least partly responsible for those suicides?

bb42
The question of doomsday proponents being prosecuted has been discussed, but unfortunately I think its very unlikely to ever happen. Proof would be required to show that their claims were responsible for scaring somebody into suicide which would not be easy to prove.

ST
As we all know, December 21st, 2012 came and went and nothing happened or we wouldn't be here to talk about it. But as we also know, the claims about Planet X and prophecies of alleged upcoming calamities didn't stop.

bb42
Yes, unfortunately what happens is that as soon as a given date for doomsday passes and fails, the hoaxers and scammers who promote this rubbish sweep their failed claims under the carpet as though they never mentioned them and move the goalposts, with a new claim and a new date. This is what happened with Comet Elenin, 2012 and all the failed Nibiru arrivals amongst other claims. I fully expect that the same thing will happen once Comet ISON has passed by harmlessly as well.

ST
Currently there's a lot of talking about Comet ISON. What do we actually know about this comet?

bb42
We know it's a "sungrazer" comet, which means it might be very bright indeed and a spectacular naked-eye object in the sky. However, current observations indicate that it might be a disappointment unfortunately, but we'll see. It crossed Earths orbit a few days ago and providing it survives perihelion [1] when it goes around the Sun, it will make its closest approach to Earth on 26th December.

Here's a very good interactive model of Comet ISON where its progress can be tracked:
http://www.solarsystemscope.com/ison/

ST
How big is this comet?

bb42
The only solid part of it is the nucleus, which is estimated at between 2 to 5 kilometers in diameter. The rest of it is the coma [2] and the tail, which are made up of gaseous material and very tiny dust particles.

ST
So its mass could pose a threat to any life on this planet IF it would crash on Earth?

bb42
If it hit Earth it would be very serious indeed, yes. But we know it won't because its path has been worked out very precisely by many thousands of astronomers.

ST
So it won't crash into Earth?

bb42
No, it will miss Earth by almost 40 million miles.



Video by Bill Hudson, with help from Dazzathecameraman and others.

ST
What are the doomsday proponents claiming could happen when it's flying by?

bb42
Claims vary but they are very similar to the ones we had about Comet Elenin. "Three days of darkness," massive solar flares, earthquakes, tsunamis etc etc. Also that "The Elite" will be heading for their alleged underground bunkers.

ST
So all these claims are wrong?

bb42
There is no support in science for any of the claims, which is why they keep failing to happen.

ST
What kind of people are making all these claims? Are they also hobby astonomers?

bb42
Some claim to have telescopes and quite possibly some do, but I wouldn't call them "astronomers" as they are in mainstream science. I think "pseudo-astronomers" would be a much more accurate term, as in "pseudo-scientists."

ST
So in other words, they possibly don't really know what they are talking about?

bb42
Either that, or they are fully aware they are talking nonsense, but make up doomsday rubbish in order to scam people for money (donations etc) or to gain lots of Youtube advertising revenue because of all the views and subscribers they get. Some make the nonsense up because they get a laugh out of scaring people - ie trolls/hoaxers.

ST
Who are those doomsday proponents? Or how can you recognize one?

bb42
There are far too many to mention, but they are recognized by the way they use pseudoscience to promote various doom claims, which usually involve a giant unknown planet approaching, or a comet which they claim is really a planet, or that the Earth's axis will suddenly shift, or that massive solar flares will wipe out all life on Earth etc etc. Or often a combination of those and others.

Here's a good definition of "pseudoscience" from Rational Wiki:

"Pseudoscience is any belief system or methodology which tries to gain legitimacy by wearing the trappings of science, but fails to abide by the rigorous methodology and standards of evidence that demarcate true science. Although pseudoscience is designed to have the appearance of being scientific, it lacks any of the substance of science."
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Pseudoscience

ST
How can people discern between good and bad information in order to avoid falling for such charlatans?

bb42
By studying real science and real astronomy. Visiting or joining their local astronomy club, talking to the members there and going with the members on observing evenings is a very good idea, as all the telescopes are available for everyone there to look though.

Also, a very important thing to do is to develop one's critical thinking skills and get into the habit of questioning every claim and seeking evidence. Those who do not do this are gullible and easily scared by the claims otherwise.

ST
That's excellent advice, IMO, especially since many people don't seem to trust NASA or ESA or other space organizations because they are allegedly involved in some kind of cover up. So private clubs could be a very good alternative. You've also uploaded a vid recently. What's it all about?

bb42
It's a video explaining why the NASA IRAS satellite did not discover Planet X or Nibiru in 1983, in spite of many claims that they did by doomsday proponents.

ST
And what has been discovered instead?

bb42
At first, it was not known what IRAS had discovered and a journalist in the Washington Post wrote an article speculating that it might have been a large unknown planet in our own solar system. This article is what the doomsday proponents refer to when claiming that IRAS had discovered Nibiru.

However, further observations showed that IRAS had in fact discovered some distant infrared galaxies and gas clouds, and a science paper was written which was then peer reviewed.




ST
When ISON will have traveled further without causing any damage, do you think it'd be a good thing if people would trust science a bit more?

bb42
Yes, it would be a good thing, but the trouble is they never do. Similar claims were made about Comet Elenin, Comet Holmes and other comets and they just keep on getting repeated whenever a new comet gets in the news. That said, many of those making the claims are scammers or hoaxers who know perfectly well they are talking nonsense to start with.

Science is not about trust anyway - it's about evidence, and experiment to see if something can be repeated. If it can, it is then peer reviewed and published in a science journal for anyone to examine who wants to (although usually with long word science terms used that only scientists understand!) But anyone who wishes to can study a science that interests them, such as astronomy in order to gain a better understanding of what scientists are writing about.

ST
That sounds like good advice. Well, thank you for all the information and thanks for being the first I was allowed to interview for my new blog.

bb42
My pleasure, Stellar Thoughts, and thanks for interviewing me!




[1] Perihelion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apsis

[2] Coma: http://spaceguard.rm.iasf.cnr.it/NScience/neo/neo-what/com-coma.htm



Additional links:

http://www.youtube.com/user/bugbait42/feed?filter=1  (bugbait42's Youtube channel)

http://www.cosmophobia.org/

http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/Teenager-feared-world-end/story-16119760-detail/story.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/2796536/Large-Hadron-Collider-fears-prompted-Indian-suicide.html